Who is the MP for Dover and Deal?

Mike Tapp (Labour) is the MP for Dover and Deal. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Dover and Deal at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Dover and Deal was won by Labour with 39.6% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 23.8%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Dover and Deal?

PollCheck's current projection has Reform UK on 37.1% and Labour on 26.3% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Dover and Deal in?

Dover and Deal sits within Dover council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Dover covers most or all of the Dover and Deal area.

What is the demographic profile of Dover and Deal?

Dover and Deal is in South East. The seat is Leave-voting (Leave vote estimated at 62.4% in 2016). Around 26.0% of residents have a degree, a median age of 45, and 65.6% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Dover and Deal?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Dover and Deal, Labour won with 39.6% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Dover and Deal in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Dover and Deal: 2010 Conservative, 2015 Conservative, 2017 Conservative, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

Dover and Deal

South East · County constituency · Dover borough

Sitting MP

Mike Tapp

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

South East

County constituency, Dover council

Last 5 GE winners

CCCCL

Conservative 4/5, Labour 1/5

EU referendum 2016

62.4% Leave

UK average 51.9%; +10.5pp above mean

Current outlook

Reform UK +10.8pp

Vulnerability score 9/10 (Labour projected to lose)

SouthernStrong Leave areaWorking-class profile

Who lives in Dover and Deal? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

62.4%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

26.0%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

19.8%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

65.6%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

33.5%

UK average ~36%

Median age

45.4

UK median ~40

Age 65+

28.1%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

26.0%

UK average ~28%

How did Dover and Deal vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 7,585 votes (15.8pp) · turnout 62.5%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Dover and Deal

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Dover and Deal within Dover

The Westminster constituency of Dover and Deal sits entirely within Dover Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Dover 62 LSOAs	100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Dover and Deal at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Dover and Deal at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	Con gain from Lab	Charlie Elphicke Dover MP	33.5%	44.0%	15.8%	3.5% UKIP	-	3.2%	5,274	70.1%
2015predecessor	Con hold	Charlie Elphicke Dover MP	30.7%	43.3%	3.1%	20.3% UKIP	2.6%	-	6,294	68.9%
2017predecessor	Con hold	Charlie Elphicke Dover MP	40.0%	52.4%	2.6%	3.3% UKIP	1.8%	-	6,437	69.7%
2019notional	Conservative winner	Natalie Elphicke Dover MP, pre-review boundary	32.6%	56.9%	5.7%	-	2.7%	2.1%	12,421	67.5%
2024	Lab gain from Con	Mike Tapp	39.6%	21.7%	5.4%	23.8% Ref	6.5%	2.9%	7,585	62.5%

Dover and Deal was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Dover (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Dover and Deal

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Dover and Deal. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.