Who is the MP for Dorking and Horley?

Chris Coghlan (Liberal Democrat) is the MP for Dorking and Horley. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Dorking and Horley at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Dorking and Horley was won by Liberal Democrats with 41.9% of the vote, ahead of Conservative on 31.1%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Dorking and Horley?

PollCheck's current projection has Liberal Democrats on 37.0% and Reform UK on 24.5% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Dorking and Horley in?

Dorking and Horley crosses multiple council boundaries: Mole Valley (66%), Reigate and Banstead (32%), Waverley (2%). Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units.

What is the demographic profile of Dorking and Horley?

Dorking and Horley is in South East. The seat is closely divided on Brexit (Leave vote estimated at 47.7% in 2016). Around 39.6% of residents have a degree, a median age of 46, and 73.3% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Dorking and Horley?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Dorking and Horley, Liberal Democrats won with 41.9% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Dorking and Horley in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Dorking and Horley: 2010 Conservative, 2015 Conservative, 2017 Conservative, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Liberal Democrats.

Constituency profile

Dorking and Horley

South East · County constituency

Sitting MP

Chris Coghlan

Liberal Democrat

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

South East

County constituency

Last 5 GE winners

CCCCLD

Conservative 4/5, Liberal Democrats 1/5

EU referendum 2016

47.7% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -4.2pp below mean

Current outlook

Liberal Democrats +12.5pp

vs Reform UK 24.5%

SouthernBrexit-marginal

Who lives in Dorking and Horley? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

47.7%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

39.6%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

13.0%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

73.3%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

25.2%

UK average ~36%

Median age

45.7

UK median ~40

Age 65+

26.8%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

23.7%

UK average ~28%

How did Dorking and Horley vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

LD gain from Con · majority 5,391 votes (10.8pp) · turnout 69.7%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Dorking and Horley

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Dorking and Horley within Mole Valley and Reigate and Banstead and 1 other council

Dorking and Horley crosses multiple council boundaries: Mole Valley (66%), Reigate and Banstead (32%), Waverley (2%). The figures below come from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026 in each constituent council.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Mole Valley 37 LSOAs	66%
Reigate and Banstead 18 LSOAs	32%
Waverley 1 LSOAs	2%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Dorking and Horley at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Dorking and Horley at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	Con hold	Paul Beresford Mole Valley MP	7.0%	57.5%	28.7%	5.1% UKIP	1.6%	-	15,653	75.1%
2015predecessor	Con hold	Paul Beresford Mole Valley MP	8.3%	60.6%	14.5%	11.2% UKIP	5.4%	-	25,453	74.5%
2017predecessor	Con hold	Paul Beresford Mole Valley MP	13.9%	61.9%	19.3%	2.4% UKIP	2.6%	-	24,137	76.1%
2019notional	Conservative winner	Paul Beresford Mole Valley MP, pre-review boundary	9.9%	51.2%	32.1%	0.9% Brx	4.2%	1.7%	10,381	77.5%
2024	LD gain from Con	Chris Coghlan	8.1%	31.1%	41.9%	13.8% Ref	5.1%	-	5,391	69.7%

Dorking and Horley was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Mole Valley (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Dorking and Horley

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Dorking and Horley. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.