Who is the MP for Dagenham and Rainham?

Margaret Mullane (Labour) is the MP for Dagenham and Rainham. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Dagenham and Rainham at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Dagenham and Rainham was won by Labour with 42.6% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 24.2%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Dagenham and Rainham?

PollCheck's current projection has Reform UK on 38.4% and Labour on 25.7% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Dagenham and Rainham in?

Dagenham and Rainham crosses multiple council boundaries: Barking and Dagenham (59%), Havering (41%). Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units.

What is the demographic profile of Dagenham and Rainham?

Dagenham and Rainham is in London. The seat is Leave-voting (Leave vote estimated at 70.3% in 2016). Around 29.8% of residents have a degree, a median age of 36, and 56.8% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Dagenham and Rainham?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Dagenham and Rainham, Labour won with 42.6% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Dagenham and Rainham in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Dagenham and Rainham: 2010 Labour, 2015 Labour, 2017 Labour, 2019 Labour, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

Dagenham and Rainham

London · Borough constituency

Sitting MP

Margaret Mullane

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

London

Borough constituency

Last 5 GE winners

LLLLL

Labour 5/5

EU referendum 2016

70.3% Leave

UK average 51.9%; +18.4pp above mean

Current outlook

Reform UK +12.7pp

Vulnerability score 9/10 (Labour projected to lose)

LondonStrong Leave areaDiverse

Who lives in Dagenham and Rainham? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

70.3%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

29.8%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

23.0%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

56.8%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

41.9%

UK average ~36%

Median age

35.8

UK median ~40

Age 65+

16.2%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

34.2%

UK average ~28%

How did Dagenham and Rainham vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 7,173 votes (18.4pp) · turnout 50.8%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Dagenham and Rainham

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Dagenham and Rainham within Barking and Dagenham and Havering

Dagenham and Rainham crosses multiple council boundaries: Barking and Dagenham (59%), Havering (41%). The figures below come from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026 in each constituent council.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat	Projection
Barking and Dagenham 39 LSOAs	59%	View projection ›
Havering 27 LSOAs	41%	View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Dagenham and Rainham at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Dagenham and Rainham at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Lab hold	Jon Cruddas	40.3%	34.3%	8.6%	3.5% UKIP	0.7%	12.6%	2,630	63.4%
2015	Lab hold	Jon Cruddas	41.4%	24.4%	1.7%	29.8% UKIP	1.9%	0.8%	4,980	62.3%
2017	Lab hold	Jon Cruddas	50.1%	39.9%	1.0%	7.1% UKIP	1.2%	0.7%	4,652	64.9%
2019notional	Labour winner	Jon Cruddas 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	44.7%	43.1%	3.0%	-	1.5%	7.7%	706	59.7%
2024	Lab hold	Margaret Mullane	42.6%	17.8%	2.7%	24.2% Ref	10.8%	1.9%	7,173	50.8%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Dagenham and Rainham

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Dagenham and Rainham. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.