Who is the MP for Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch?

Katrina Murray (Labour) is the MP for Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch was won by Labour with 45.2% of the vote, ahead of SNP on 35.1%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch?

PollCheck's current projection has SNP on 41.1% and Labour on 24.6% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch in?

Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch sits within East Dunbartonshire council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but East Dunbartonshire covers most or all of the Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch area.

What is the demographic profile of Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch?

Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch is in Scotland. The seat is Remain-voting (Leave vote estimated at 36.6% in 2016). Around 42.0% of residents have a degree, a median age of 44, and 68.5% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch, Labour won with 45.2% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch: 2010 Labour, 2015 SNP, 2017 SNP, 2019 SNP, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch

Scotland · County constituency · East Dunbartonshire borough

Sitting MP

Katrina Murray

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

Scotland

County constituency, East Dunbartonshire council

Last 5 GE winners

LSSSL

SNP 3/5, Labour 2/5

EU referendum 2016

36.6% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -15.3pp below mean

Current outlook

SNP +16.5pp

Vulnerability score 9/10 (Labour projected to lose)

ScottishRemain-leaningGraduate-heavy

Who lives in Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

36.6%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

42.0%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

17.4%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

68.5%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

30.6%

UK average ~36%

Median age

43.7

UK median ~40

Age 65+

23.6%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

27.6%

UK average ~28%

How did Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from SNP · majority 4,144 votes (10.1pp) · turnout 58.2%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Holyrood 2026 layer

How Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Cumbernauld and Kilsyth (70%), Strathkelvin and Bearsden (16%), Coatbridge and Chryston (10%), Falkirk West (1%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituency	Share of Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch	Winner	Runner-up	Elected MSP
Cumbernauld and Kilsyth	70%	SNP 50.8%	Labour 23.8%	Jamie Hepburn
Strathkelvin and Bearsden	16%	Liberal Democrats 39.5%	SNP 33.0%	Adam Harley
Coatbridge and Chryston	10%	SNP 49.1%	Labour 26.1%	Fulton MacGregor
Falkirk West	1%	SNP 41.2%	Reform UK 22.6%	Gary Bouse

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).

Council layer (not Westminster)

Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch within East Dunbartonshire

The Westminster constituency of Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch sits entirely within East Dunbartonshire Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
East Dunbartonshire 1 LSOAs	100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	Lab hold	Gregg McClymont Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East MP	57.2%	8.3%	9.5%	-	-	1.2%	13,755	64.3%
2015predecessor	SNP gain from Lab	Stuart McDonald Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East MP	30.0%	7.9%	2.2%	-	-	-	14,752	73.6%
2017predecessor	SNP hold	Stuart McDonald Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East MP	33.9%	18.3%	2.8%	1.4% UKIP	-	-	4,264	65.9%
2019notional	Scottish National Party winner	Stuart C. McDonald Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East MP, pre-review boundary	27.1%	15.0%	5.6%	-	-	52.3%	12,005	68.3%
2024	Lab gain from SNP	Katrina Murray	45.2%	4.7%	3.2%	7.7% Ref	4.1%	-	4,144	58.2%

Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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