Who is the MP for Croydon East?

Natasha Irons (Labour) is the MP for Croydon East. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Croydon East at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Croydon East was won by Labour with 42.4% of the vote, ahead of Conservative on 26.8%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Croydon East?

PollCheck's current projection has Conservative on 26.5% and Labour on 25.6% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Croydon East in?

Croydon East sits within Croydon council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Croydon covers most or all of the Croydon East area.

What is the demographic profile of Croydon East?

Croydon East is in London. The seat is closely divided on Brexit (Leave vote estimated at 48.1% in 2016). Around 36.3% of residents have a degree, a median age of 39, and 58.0% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Croydon East?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Croydon East, Labour won with 42.4% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Croydon East in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Croydon East: 2010 Conservative, 2015 Conservative, 2017 Labour, 2019 Labour, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

Croydon East

London · Borough constituency · Croydon borough

Sitting MP

Natasha Irons

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

London

Borough constituency, Croydon council

Last 5 GE winners

CCLLL

Labour 3/5, Conservative 2/5

EU referendum 2016

48.1% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -3.8pp below mean

Current outlook

Conservative +0.9pp

Vulnerability score 7/10 (Labour projected to lose)

LondonBrexit-marginalDiverse

Who lives in Croydon East? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

48.1%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

36.3%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

17.7%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

58.0%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

40.9%

UK average ~36%

Median age

38.7

UK median ~40

Age 65+

18.8%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

31.6%

UK average ~28%

How did Croydon East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 6,825 votes (15.6pp) · turnout 57.2%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Croydon East

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Croydon East within Croydon

The Westminster constituency of Croydon East sits entirely within Croydon Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat	Projection
Croydon 67 LSOAs	100%	View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Croydon East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Croydon East at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	Con gain from Lab	Gavin Barwell Croydon Central MP	33.6%	39.4%	13.2%	2.0% UKIP	1.2%	10.6%	2,879	65.1%
2015predecessor	Con hold	Gavin Barwell Croydon Central MP	42.7%	43.0%	2.2%	9.1% UKIP	2.7%	0.3%	165	67.7%
2017predecessor	Lab gain from Con	Sarah Jones Croydon Central MP	52.3%	42.4%	1.9%	1.8% UKIP	1.1%	0.4%	5,652	71.3%
2019notional	Labour winner	Sarah Jones Croydon Central MP, pre-review boundary	48.1%	41.3%	6.6%	-	2.3%	1.7%	3,413	67.2%
2024	Lab hold	Natasha Irons	42.4%	26.8%	8.1%	13.4% Ref	9.4%	-	6,825	57.2%

Croydon East was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Croydon Central (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Croydon East

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Croydon East. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.