Who is the MP for Chipping Barnet?

Dan Tomlinson (Labour) is the MP for Chipping Barnet. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Chipping Barnet at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Chipping Barnet was won by Labour with 42.4% of the vote, ahead of Conservative on 36.7%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Chipping Barnet?

PollCheck's current projection has Conservative on 35.8% and Labour on 29.8% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Chipping Barnet in?

Chipping Barnet sits within Barnet council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Barnet covers most or all of the Chipping Barnet area.

What is the demographic profile of Chipping Barnet?

Chipping Barnet is in London. The seat is Remain-voting (Leave vote estimated at 41.1% in 2016). Around 48.5% of residents have a degree, a median age of 41, and 64.2% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Chipping Barnet?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Chipping Barnet, Labour won with 42.4% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Chipping Barnet in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Chipping Barnet: 2010 Conservative, 2015 Conservative, 2017 Conservative, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

Chipping Barnet

London · Borough constituency · Barnet borough

Sitting MP

Dan Tomlinson

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

London

Borough constituency, Barnet council

Last 5 GE winners

CCCCL

Conservative 4/5, Labour 1/5

EU referendum 2016

41.1% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -10.8pp below mean

Current outlook

Conservative +6.0pp

Vulnerability score 7/10 (Labour projected to lose)

LondonRemain-leaningGraduate-heavyDiverse

Who lives in Chipping Barnet? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

41.1%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

48.5%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

14.3%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

64.2%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

34.7%

UK average ~36%

Median age

40.8

UK median ~40

Age 65+

21.0%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

28.2%

UK average ~28%

How did Chipping Barnet vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 2,914 votes (5.7pp) · turnout 65.2%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Chipping Barnet

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Chipping Barnet within Barnet

The Westminster constituency of Chipping Barnet sits entirely within Barnet Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat	Projection
Barnet 68 LSOAs	100%	View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Chipping Barnet at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Chipping Barnet at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Con hold	Theresa Villiers	25.2%	48.8%	20.2%	2.8% UKIP	2.0%	0.9%	11,927	67.4%
2015	Con hold	Theresa Villiers	34.1%	48.6%	4.5%	7.8% UKIP	4.7%	0.2%	7,656	68.1%
2017	Con hold	Theresa Villiers	45.7%	46.3%	5.4%	-	2.5%	-	353	71.8%
2019notional	Conservative winner	Theresa Villiers 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	40.3%	47.5%	9.8%	-	2.2%	0.2%	4,209	76.7%
2024	Lab gain from Con	Dan Tomlinson	42.4%	36.7%	5.1%	7.8% Ref	6.8%	1.1%	2,914	65.2%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Chipping Barnet

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Chipping Barnet. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.