Who is the MP for Ceredigion Preseli?

Ben Lake (Plaid Cymru) is the MP for Ceredigion Preseli. They were first elected in June 2017.

Who won Ceredigion Preseli at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Ceredigion Preseli was won by Plaid Cymru with 47.0% of the vote, ahead of Liberal Democrats on 15.0%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Ceredigion Preseli?

PollCheck's current projection has Plaid Cymru on 56.5% and Reform UK on 16.6% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Ceredigion Preseli in?

Ceredigion Preseli crosses multiple council boundaries: Ceredigion (76%), Pembrokeshire (24%). Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units.

What is the demographic profile of Ceredigion Preseli?

Ceredigion Preseli is in Wales. The seat is closely divided on Brexit (Leave vote estimated at 50.3% in 2016). Around 35.1% of residents have a degree, a median age of 48, and 69.9% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Ceredigion Preseli?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Ceredigion Preseli, Plaid Cymru won with 47.0% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Ceredigion Preseli in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Ceredigion Preseli: 2010 Liberal Democrats, 2015 Liberal Democrats, 2017 Plaid Cymru, 2019 Plaid Cymru, 2024 Plaid Cymru.

Ceredigion Preseli MP Ben Lake (Plaid Cymru): GE2024 result, current poll projection

Who lives in Ceredigion Preseli? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

50.3%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

35.1%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

15.4%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

69.9%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

29.7%

UK average ~36%

Median age

48.4

UK median ~40

Age 65+

30.7%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

27.5%

UK average ~28%

How did Ceredigion Preseli vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

PC hold · majority 14,789 votes (32.0pp) · turnout 61.2%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Ceredigion Preseli

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Senedd 2026 layer

How Ceredigion Preseli voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)

Ceredigion Preseli sits entirely within the Senedd constituency of Ceredigion Penfro. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.

Senedd constituency	Share of Ceredigion Preseli	Winner	Runner-up	Seats (6 per constituency)
Ceredigion Penfro	100%	Plaid Cymru 35.8%	Reform UK 25.8%	3 Plaid Cymru, 2 Reform UK, 1 Conservative

Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Ceredigion Preseli within Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire

Ceredigion Preseli crosses multiple council boundaries: Ceredigion (76%), Pembrokeshire (24%). The figures below come from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026 in each constituent council.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Ceredigion 45 LSOAs	76%
Pembrokeshire 14 LSOAs	24%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Ceredigion Preseli at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Ceredigion Preseli at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	LD hold	Mark Williams Ceredigion MP	5.8%	11.6%	50.0%	2.6% UKIP	1.8%	-	8,324	63.9%
2015predecessor	LD hold	Mark Williams Ceredigion MP	9.7%	11.0%	35.9%	10.2% UKIP	5.6%	-	3,067	69.0%
2017predecessor	PC gain from LD	Ben Lake Ceredigion MP	20.2%	18.4%	29.0%	1.5% UKIP	1.4%	0.4%	104	73.3%
2019notional	Plaid Cymru winner	Ben Lake Ceredigion MP, pre-review boundary	20.8%	28.3%	14.6%	-	1.3%	35.0%	1,443	69.8%
2024	PC hold	Ben Lake	11.6%	10.3%	15.0%	11.6% Ref	4.0%	0.5%	14,789	61.2%

Ceredigion Preseli was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Ceredigion (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Ceredigion Preseli

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Ceredigion Preseli. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.

Ceredigion Preseli

Ben Lake