Who is the MP for Castle Point?

Rebecca Harris (Conservative) is the MP for Castle Point. They were first elected in May 2010.

Who won Castle Point at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Castle Point was won by Conservative with 38.1% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 30.1%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Castle Point?

PollCheck's current projection has Reform UK on 50.5% and Conservative on 23.5% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Castle Point in?

Castle Point sits within Castle Point council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Castle Point covers most or all of the Castle Point area.

What is the demographic profile of Castle Point?

Castle Point is in East of England. The seat is Leave-voting (Leave vote estimated at 72.7% in 2016). Around 18.5% of residents have a degree, a median age of 47, and 80.1% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Castle Point?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Castle Point, Conservative won with 38.1% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Castle Point in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Castle Point: 2010 Conservative, 2015 Conservative, 2017 Conservative, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Conservative.

Constituency profile

Castle Point

East of England · Borough constituency

Sitting MP

Rebecca Harris

Conservative

First elected May 2010Shadow: Opposition Chief Whip (Commons)

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

East of England

Borough constituency

Last 5 GE winners

CCCCC

Conservative 5/5

EU referendum 2016

72.7% Leave

UK average 51.9%; +20.8pp above mean

Current outlook

Reform UK +27.0pp

Vulnerability score 10/10 (Conservative projected to lose)

SouthernStrong Leave areaWorking-class profile

Who lives in Castle Point? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

72.7%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

18.5%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

24.0%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

80.1%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

19.5%

UK average ~36%

Median age

46.6

UK median ~40

Age 65+

29.9%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

25.2%

UK average ~28%

How did Castle Point vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 3,251 votes (8.0pp) · turnout 57.2%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Castle Point

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Castle Point within Castle Point

The Westminster constituency of Castle Point sits almost entirely within Castle Point Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat	Projection
Castle Point 57 LSOAs	98%	View projection ›
Basildon 1 LSOAs	2%	View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Castle Point at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Castle Point at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Con hold	Rebecca Harris	14.7%	44.0%	9.4%	-	-	31.9%	7,632	66.9%
2015	Con hold	Rebecca Harris	13.8%	50.9%	1.8%	31.2% UKIP	2.4%	-	8,934	66.7%
2017	Con hold	Rebecca Harris	25.1%	67.3%	2.3%	5.3% UKIP	-	-	18,872	64.4%
2019notional	Conservative winner	Rebecca Harris 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	16.8%	76.5%	6.6%	-	-	0.1%	27,009	63.8%
2024	Con hold	Rebecca Harris	23.3%	38.1%	3.3%	30.1% Ref	5.2%	-	3,251	57.2%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Castle Point

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Castle Point. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.