Who is the MP for Carshalton and Wallington?

Bobby Dean (Liberal Democrat) is the MP for Carshalton and Wallington. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Carshalton and Wallington at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Carshalton and Wallington was won by Liberal Democrats with 43.1% of the vote, ahead of Conservative on 26.2%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Carshalton and Wallington?

PollCheck's current projection has Liberal Democrats on 38.3% and Reform UK on 28.8% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Carshalton and Wallington in?

Carshalton and Wallington sits within Sutton council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Sutton covers most or all of the Carshalton and Wallington area.

What is the demographic profile of Carshalton and Wallington?

Carshalton and Wallington is in London. The seat is Leave-voting (Leave vote estimated at 56.3% in 2016). Around 37.4% of residents have a degree, a median age of 39, and 63.5% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Carshalton and Wallington?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Carshalton and Wallington, Liberal Democrats won with 43.1% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Carshalton and Wallington in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Carshalton and Wallington: 2010 Liberal Democrats, 2015 Liberal Democrats, 2017 Liberal Democrats, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Liberal Democrats.

Constituency profile

Carshalton and Wallington

London · Borough constituency · Sutton borough

Sitting MP

Bobby Dean

Liberal Democrat

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

London

Borough constituency, Sutton council

Last 5 GE winners

LDLDLDCLD

Liberal Democrats 4/5, Conservative 1/5

EU referendum 2016

56.3% Leave

UK average 51.9%; +4.4pp above mean

Current outlook

Liberal Democrats +9.5pp

vs Reform UK 28.8%

LondonLeave-leaningDiverse

Who lives in Carshalton and Wallington? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

56.3%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

37.4%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

16.1%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

63.5%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

35.2%

UK average ~36%

Median age

39.0

UK median ~40

Age 65+

17.8%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

29.5%

UK average ~28%

How did Carshalton and Wallington vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

LD gain from Con · majority 7,905 votes (16.9pp) · turnout 62.8%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Carshalton and Wallington

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Carshalton and Wallington within Sutton

The Westminster constituency of Carshalton and Wallington sits entirely within Sutton Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat	Projection
Sutton 62 LSOAs	100%	View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Carshalton and Wallington at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Carshalton and Wallington at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	LD hold	Tom Brake	8.7%	36.8%	48.3%	2.9% UKIP	0.8%	2.4%	5,260	69.0%
2015	LD hold	Tom Brake	15.0%	31.7%	34.9%	14.8% UKIP	3.1%	0.5%	1,510	68.0%
2017	LD hold	Tom Brake	18.4%	38.3%	41.0%	-	1.0%	1.2%	1,369	71.6%
2019notional	Conservative winner	Elliot Colburn 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	12.4%	42.4%	41.1%	-	1.5%	2.6%	629	67.5%
2024	LD gain from Con	Bobby Dean	13.1%	26.2%	43.1%	12.7% Ref	3.3%	1.6%	7,905	62.8%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Carshalton and Wallington

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Carshalton and Wallington. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.