Who is the MP for Cardiff North?

Anna McMorrin (Labour) is the MP for Cardiff North. They were first elected in June 2017.

Who won Cardiff North at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Cardiff North was won by Labour with 43.9% of the vote, ahead of Conservative on 20.3%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Cardiff North?

PollCheck's current projection has Labour on 24.6% and Plaid Cymru on 21.7% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Cardiff North in?

Cardiff North sits within Cardiff council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Cardiff covers most or all of the Cardiff North area.

What is the demographic profile of Cardiff North?

Cardiff North is in Wales. The seat is Remain-voting (Leave vote estimated at 39.1% in 2016). Around 44.4% of residents have a degree, a median age of 41, and 73.8% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Cardiff North?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Cardiff North, Labour won with 43.9% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Cardiff North in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Cardiff North: 2010 Conservative, 2015 Conservative, 2017 Labour, 2019 Labour, 2024 Labour.

Cardiff North MP Anna McMorrin (Labour): GE2024 result, current poll projection

Who lives in Cardiff North? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

39.1%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

44.4%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

12.8%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

73.8%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

25.6%

UK average ~36%

Median age

40.6

UK median ~40

Age 65+

22.6%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

31.1%

UK average ~28%

How did Cardiff North vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 11,207 votes (23.6pp) · turnout 66.4%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Cardiff North

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Senedd 2026 layer

How Cardiff North voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)

Cardiff North sits almost entirely within the Senedd constituency of Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.

Senedd constituency	Share of Cardiff North	Winner	Runner-up	Seats (6 per constituency)
Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf	96%	Plaid Cymru 37.0%	Reform UK 19.6%	3 Plaid Cymru, 1 Reform UK, 1 Labour, 1 Green
Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr	2%	Plaid Cymru 39.5%	Reform UK 30.6%	3 Plaid Cymru, 2 Reform UK, 1 Labour

Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Cardiff North within Cardiff

The Westminster constituency of Cardiff North sits almost entirely within Cardiff Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Cardiff 56 LSOAs	97%
Rhondda Cynon Taf 2 LSOAs	3%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Cardiff North at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Cardiff North at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Con gain from Lab	Jonathan Evans	37.1%	37.5%	18.3%	2.4% UKIP	0.8%	0.6%	194	72.7%
2015	Con hold	Craig Williams	38.3%	42.4%	3.8%	7.7% UKIP	2.5%	0.8%	2,137	76.1%
2017	Lab gain from Con	Anna McMorrin	50.1%	42.1%	3.3%	1.1% UKIP	-	-	4,174	77.4%
2019notional	Labour winner	Anna McMorrin 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	49.6%	35.7%	6.5%	-	1.5%	6.7%	7,579	76.9%
2024	Lab hold	Anna McMorrin	43.9%	20.3%	6.7%	12.6% Ref	6.7%	-	11,207	66.4%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Cardiff North

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Cardiff North. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.

Cardiff North

Anna McMorrin