Who is the MP for Cardiff East?

Jo Stevens (Labour) is the MP for Cardiff East. They were first elected in May 2015.

Who won Cardiff East at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Cardiff East was won by Labour with 40.5% of the vote, ahead of Liberal Democrats on 17.2%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Cardiff East?

PollCheck's current projection has Plaid Cymru on 21.0% and Labour on 20.4% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Cardiff East in?

Cardiff East sits within Cardiff council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Cardiff covers most or all of the Cardiff East area.

What is the demographic profile of Cardiff East?

Cardiff East is in Wales. The seat is Remain-voting (Leave vote estimated at 37.4% in 2016). Around 37.1% of residents have a degree, a median age of 34, and 54.8% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Cardiff East?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Cardiff East, Labour won with 40.5% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Cardiff East in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Cardiff East: 2010 Labour, 2015 Labour, 2017 Labour, 2019 Labour, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

Cardiff East

Wales · Borough constituency · Cardiff borough

Sitting MP

Jo Stevens

Labour

First elected May 2015Cabinet: Secretary of State for Wales

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

Wales

Borough constituency, Cardiff council

Last 5 GE winners

LLLLL

Labour 5/5

EU referendum 2016

37.4% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -14.5pp below mean

Current outlook

Plaid Cymru +0.6pp

Vulnerability score 5/10 (Labour projected to lose)

WelshRemain-leaning

Who lives in Cardiff East? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

37.4%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

37.1%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

18.3%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

54.8%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

44.7%

UK average ~36%

Median age

34.1

UK median ~40

Age 65+

17.4%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

40.6%

UK average ~28%

How did Cardiff East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 9,097 votes (23.3pp) · turnout 53.7%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Cardiff East

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Senedd 2026 layer

How Cardiff East voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)

Cardiff East sits almost entirely within the Senedd constituency of Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.

Senedd constituency	Share of Cardiff East	Winner	Runner-up	Seats (6 per constituency)
Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf	99%	Plaid Cymru 37.0%	Reform UK 19.6%	3 Plaid Cymru, 1 Reform UK, 1 Labour, 1 Green
Caerdydd Penarth	1%	Plaid Cymru 41.0%	Reform UK 17.6%	3 Plaid Cymru, 1 Reform UK, 1 Green, 1 Labour

Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Cardiff East within Cardiff

The Westminster constituency of Cardiff East sits entirely within Cardiff Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Cardiff 64 LSOAs	100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Cardiff East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Cardiff East at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	Lab hold	Alun Michael Cardiff South and Penarth MP	38.9%	28.3%	22.3%	2.6% UKIP	1.2%	2.5%	4,709	60.2%
2015predecessor	Lab hold	Stephen Doughty Cardiff South and Penarth MP	42.8%	26.8%	5.0%	13.8% UKIP	3.7%	0.6%	7,453	61.4%
2017predecessor	Lab hold	Stephen Doughty Cardiff South and Penarth MP	59.5%	30.2%	2.8%	1.9% UKIP	1.0%	0.3%	14,864	66.3%
2019notional	Labour winner	Stephen Doughty Cardiff South and Penarth MP, pre-review boundary	59.2%	22.7%	12.3%	-	0.6%	5.2%	17,079	64.6%
2024	Lab hold	Jo Stevens	40.5%	10.0%	17.2%	12.7% Ref	10.0%	0.5%	9,097	53.7%

Cardiff East was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Cardiff South and Penarth (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Cardiff East

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Cardiff East. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.