Who is the MP for Caerphilly?

Chris Evans (Labour (Co-op)) is the MP for Caerphilly. They were first elected in May 2010.

Who won Caerphilly at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Caerphilly was won by Labour with 38.0% of the vote, ahead of Plaid Cymru on 21.2%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Caerphilly?

PollCheck's current projection has Plaid Cymru on 36.7% and Reform UK on 27.8% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Caerphilly in?

Caerphilly sits within Caerphilly council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Caerphilly covers most or all of the Caerphilly area.

What is the demographic profile of Caerphilly?

Caerphilly is in Wales. The seat is Leave-voting (Leave vote estimated at 55.1% in 2016). Around 27.3% of residents have a degree, a median age of 42, and 68.8% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Caerphilly?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Caerphilly, Labour won with 38.0% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Caerphilly in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Caerphilly: 2010 Labour, 2015 Labour, 2017 Labour, 2019 Labour, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

Caerphilly

Wales · County constituency · Caerphilly borough

Sitting MP

Chris Evans

Labour (Co-op)

First elected May 2010

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

Wales

County constituency, Caerphilly council

Last 5 GE winners

LLLLL

Labour 5/5

EU referendum 2016

55.1% Leave

UK average 51.9%; +3.2pp above mean

Current outlook

Plaid Cymru +8.9pp

Vulnerability score 9/10 (Labour projected to lose)

WelshLeave-leaningWorking-class profile

Who lives in Caerphilly? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

55.1%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

27.3%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

22.6%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

68.8%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

30.8%

UK average ~36%

Median age

42.1

UK median ~40

Age 65+

24.0%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

28.1%

UK average ~28%

How did Caerphilly vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 6,419 votes (16.8pp) · turnout 52.6%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Caerphilly

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Senedd 2026 layer

How Caerphilly voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)

Caerphilly sits almost entirely within the Senedd constituency of Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.

Senedd constituency	Share of Caerphilly	Winner	Runner-up	Seats (6 per constituency)
Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni	98%	Plaid Cymru 42.0%	Reform UK 34.3%	3 Plaid Cymru, 3 Reform UK
Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr	1%	Plaid Cymru 39.5%	Reform UK 30.6%	3 Plaid Cymru, 2 Reform UK, 1 Labour

Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Caerphilly within Caerphilly

The Westminster constituency of Caerphilly sits entirely within Caerphilly Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Caerphilly 60 LSOAs	100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Caerphilly at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Caerphilly at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Lab hold	Wayne David	44.9%	17.1%	14.7%	2.4% UKIP	-	4.2%	10,755	62.3%
2015	Lab hold	Wayne David	44.3%	16.6%	2.3%	19.3% UKIP	2.3%	0.4%	10,073	63.3%
2017	Lab hold	Wayne David	54.5%	25.2%	1.8%	3.0% UKIP	1.1%	-	12,078	64.1%
2019notional	Labour winner	Wayne David 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	43.9%	28.6%	0.7%	-	0.4%	26.4%	6,901	62.2%
2024	Lab hold	Chris Evans	38.0%	11.5%	4.7%	20.3% Ref	4.3%	-	6,419	52.6%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Caerphilly

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Caerphilly. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.