Who is the MP for Caerfyrddin?

Ann Davies (Plaid Cymru) is the MP for Caerfyrddin. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Caerfyrddin at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Caerfyrddin was won by Plaid Cymru with 34.0% of the vote, ahead of Labour on 24.1%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Caerfyrddin?

PollCheck's current projection has Plaid Cymru on 43.1% and Reform UK on 23.9% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Caerfyrddin in?

Caerfyrddin sits within Carmarthenshire council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Carmarthenshire covers most or all of the Caerfyrddin area.

What is the demographic profile of Caerfyrddin?

Caerfyrddin is in Wales. The seat is closely divided on Brexit (Leave vote estimated at 54.2% in 2016). Around 33.3% of residents have a degree, a median age of 48, and 71.7% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Caerfyrddin?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Caerfyrddin, Plaid Cymru won with 34.0% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Caerfyrddin in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Caerfyrddin: 2010 Plaid Cymru, 2015 Plaid Cymru, 2017 Plaid Cymru, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Plaid Cymru.

Constituency profile

Caerfyrddin

Wales · County constituency · Carmarthenshire borough

Sitting MP

Ann Davies

Plaid Cymru

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

Wales

County constituency, Carmarthenshire council

Last 5 GE winners

PCPCPCCPC

Plaid Cymru 4/5, Conservative 1/5

EU referendum 2016

54.2% Leave

UK average 51.9%; +2.3pp above mean

Current outlook

Plaid Cymru +19.2pp

vs Reform UK 23.9%

WelshBrexit-marginal

Who lives in Caerfyrddin? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

54.2%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

33.3%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

19.4%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

71.7%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

27.9%

UK average ~36%

Median age

48.5

UK median ~40

Age 65+

30.6%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

23.6%

UK average ~28%

How did Caerfyrddin vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

PC gain from Con · majority 4,535 votes (9.9pp) · turnout 61.6%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Caerfyrddin

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Senedd 2026 layer

How Caerfyrddin voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)

Caerfyrddin sits entirely within the Senedd constituency of Sir Gaerfyrddin. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.

Senedd constituency	Share of Caerfyrddin	Winner	Runner-up	Seats (6 per constituency)
Sir Gaerfyrddin	99%	Plaid Cymru 43.1%	Reform UK 32.8%	3 Plaid Cymru, 3 Reform UK

Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Caerfyrddin within Carmarthenshire

The Westminster constituency of Caerfyrddin sits entirely within Carmarthenshire Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Carmarthenshire 57 LSOAs	100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Caerfyrddin at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Caerfyrddin at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	PC hold	Jonathan Edwards Carmarthen East and Dinefwr MP	26.5%	22.4%	12.1%	3.4% UKIP	-	-	3,481	72.6%
2015predecessor	PC hold	Jonathan Edwards Carmarthen East and Dinefwr MP	24.2%	21.2%	2.4%	11.1% UKIP	2.8%	-	5,599	70.7%
2017predecessor	PC hold	Jonathan Edwards Carmarthen East and Dinefwr MP	29.8%	26.3%	2.2%	2.4% UKIP	-	-	3,908	73.3%
2019notional	Conservative winner	Simon Hart Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire MP, pre-review boundary	25.1%	39.2%	1.3%	-	-	34.4%	4,529	73.4%
2024	PC gain from Con	Ann Davies	24.1%	19.4%	3.2%	15.2% Ref	3.0%	1.1%	4,535	61.6%

Caerfyrddin was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Caerfyrddin

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Caerfyrddin. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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