Who is the MP for Bristol North East?

Damien Egan (Labour) is the MP for Bristol North East. They were first elected in February 2024.

Who won Bristol North East at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Bristol North East was won by Labour with 45.3% of the vote, ahead of Green on 18.7%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Bristol North East?

PollCheck's current projection has Labour on 29.1% and Green on 29.0% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Bristol North East in?

Bristol North East crosses multiple council boundaries: Bristol, City of (52%), South Gloucestershire (48%). Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units.

What is the demographic profile of Bristol North East?

Bristol North East is in South West. The seat is closely divided on Brexit (Leave vote estimated at 48.6% in 2016). Around 31.9% of residents have a degree, a median age of 37, and 60.3% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Bristol North East?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Bristol North East, Labour won with 45.3% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Bristol North East in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Bristol North East: 2010 Labour, 2015 Labour, 2017 Labour, 2019 Labour, 2024 Labour.

Bristol North East MP Damien Egan (Labour): GE2024 result, current poll projection

Who lives in Bristol North East? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

48.6%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

31.9%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

18.1%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

60.3%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

38.4%

UK average ~36%

Median age

36.9

UK median ~40

Age 65+

18.8%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

35.4%

UK average ~28%

How did Bristol North East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 11,167 votes (26.6pp) · turnout 59.9%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Bristol North East

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Bristol North East within Bristol, City of and South Gloucestershire

Bristol North East crosses multiple council boundaries: Bristol, City of (52%), South Gloucestershire (48%). The figures below come from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026 in each constituent council.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Bristol, City of 29 LSOAs	52%
South Gloucestershire 27 LSOAs	48%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Bristol North East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Bristol North East at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	Lab hold	Kerry McCarthy Bristol East MP	36.6%	28.3%	24.4%	3.4% UKIP	1.8%	5.5%	3,722	64.8%
2015predecessor	Lab hold	Kerry McCarthy Bristol East MP	39.3%	30.7%	5.8%	15.5% UKIP	8.3%	0.5%	3,980	64.9%
2017predecessor	Lab hold	Kerry McCarthy Bristol East MP	60.7%	34.4%	2.7%	-	2.2%	-	13,394	70.1%
2019notional	Labour winner	Kerry McCarthy Bristol East MP, pre-review boundary	50.3%	39.1%	5.1%	-	4.0%	1.5%	5,464	70.1%
2024	Lab hold	Damien Egan	45.3%	14.8%	4.7%	12.9% Ref	18.7%	3.7%	11,167	59.9%

Bristol North East was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Bristol East (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Bristol North East

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bristol North East. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.

Bristol North East

Damien Egan