Who is the MP for Bristol East?

Kerry McCarthy (Labour) is the MP for Bristol East. They were first elected in May 2005.

Who won Bristol East at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Bristol East was won by Labour with 45.0% of the vote, ahead of Green on 30.7%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Bristol East?

PollCheck's current projection has Green on 38.6% and Labour on 26.5% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Bristol East in?

Bristol East sits within Bristol, City of council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Bristol, City of covers most or all of the Bristol East area.

What is the demographic profile of Bristol East?

Bristol East is in South West. The seat is closely divided on Brexit (Leave vote estimated at 46.8% in 2016). Around 37.3% of residents have a degree, a median age of 36, and 55.6% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Bristol East?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Bristol East, Labour won with 45.0% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Bristol East in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Bristol East: 2010 Labour, 2015 Labour, 2017 Labour, 2019 Labour, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

Bristol East

South West · Borough constituency · Bristol, City of borough

Sitting MP

Kerry McCarthy

Labour

First elected May 2005

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

South West

Borough constituency, Bristol, City of council

Last 5 GE winners

LLLLL

Labour 5/5

EU referendum 2016

46.8% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -5.1pp below mean

Current outlook

Green +12.1pp

Vulnerability score 9/10 (Labour projected to lose)

SouthernBrexit-marginal

Who lives in Bristol East? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

46.8%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

37.3%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

17.8%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

55.6%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

43.4%

UK average ~36%

Median age

35.6

UK median ~40

Age 65+

15.3%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

37.5%

UK average ~28%

How did Bristol East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 6,606 votes (14.3pp) · turnout 60.7%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Bristol East

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Bristol East within Bristol, City of

The Westminster constituency of Bristol East sits entirely within Bristol, City of Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Bristol, City of 61 LSOAs	100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Bristol East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Bristol East at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Lab hold	Kerry McCarthy	36.6%	28.3%	24.4%	3.4% UKIP	1.8%	5.5%	3,722	64.8%
2015	Lab hold	Kerry McCarthy	39.3%	30.7%	5.8%	15.5% UKIP	8.3%	0.5%	3,980	64.9%
2017	Lab hold	Kerry McCarthy	60.7%	34.4%	2.7%	-	2.2%	-	13,394	70.1%
2019notional	Labour winner	Kerry McCarthy 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	58.4%	23.3%	6.9%	-	8.4%	3.0%	19,393	72.8%
2024	Lab hold	Kerry McCarthy	45.0%	14.0%	5.9%	-	30.7%	4.5%	6,606	60.7%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Bristol East

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bristol East. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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