Who is the MP for Bristol Central?

Carla Denyer (Green Party) is the MP for Bristol Central. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Bristol Central at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Bristol Central was won by Green with 56.6% of the vote, ahead of Labour on 32.6%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Bristol Central?

PollCheck's current projection has Green on 71.1% and Labour on 16.8% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Bristol Central in?

Bristol Central sits within Bristol, City of council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Bristol, City of covers most or all of the Bristol Central area.

What is the demographic profile of Bristol Central?

Bristol Central is in South West. The seat is Remain-voting (Leave vote estimated at 20.7% in 2016). Around 56.3% of residents have a degree, a median age of 28, and 40.2% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Bristol Central?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Bristol Central, Green won with 56.6% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Bristol Central in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Bristol Central: 2010 Liberal Democrats, 2015 Labour, 2017 Labour, 2019 Labour, 2024 Green.

Constituency profile

Bristol Central

South West · Borough constituency · Bristol, City of borough

Sitting MP

Carla Denyer

Green Party

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

South West

Borough constituency, Bristol, City of council

Last 5 GE winners

LDLLLG

Labour 3/5, Liberal Democrats 1/5, Green 1/5

EU referendum 2016

20.7% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -31.2pp below mean

Current outlook

Green +54.3pp

vs Labour 16.8%

SouthernStrong Remain areaGraduate-heavy

Who lives in Bristol Central? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

20.7%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

56.3%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

4.8%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

40.2%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

58.8%

UK average ~36%

Median age

28.5

UK median ~40

Age 65+

9.1%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

60.0%

UK average ~28%

How did Bristol Central vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Green gain from Lab · majority 10,407 votes (24.0pp) · turnout 69.1%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Bristol Central

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Bristol Central within Bristol, City of

The Westminster constituency of Bristol Central sits entirely within Bristol, City of Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Bristol, City of 54 LSOAs	100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Bristol Central at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Bristol Central at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	LD hold	Stephen Williams Bristol West MP	27.5%	18.4%	48.0%	1.2% UKIP	3.8%	1.1%	11,366	66.9%
2015predecessor	Lab gain from LD	Thangam Debbonaire Bristol West MP	35.7%	15.2%	18.8%	3.0% UKIP	26.8%	0.5%	5,673	70.4%
2017predecessor	Lab hold	Thangam Debbonaire Bristol West MP	65.9%	13.8%	7.3%	-	12.9%	0.1%	37,336	77.0%
2019notional	Labour winner	Thangam Debbonaire Bristol West MP, pre-review boundary	58.5%	14.3%	0.0%	-	26.0%	1.2%	16,696	73.2%
2024	Green gain from Lab	Carla Denyer	32.6%	4.6%	2.7%	3.1% Ref	56.6%	0.5%	10,407	69.1%

Bristol Central was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Bristol West (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Bristol Central

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bristol Central. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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