Who is the MP for Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe?

David Chadwick (Liberal Democrat) is the MP for Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe was won by Liberal Democrats with 29.5% of the vote, ahead of Conservative on 26.4%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe?

PollCheck's current projection has Liberal Democrats on 27.4% and Reform UK on 23.3% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe in?

Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe crosses multiple council boundaries: Powys (76%), Neath Port Talbot (24%). Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units.

What is the demographic profile of Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe?

Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe is in Wales. The seat is closely divided on Brexit (Leave vote estimated at 52.9% in 2016). Around 32.2% of residents have a degree, a median age of 50, and 69.0% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe, Liberal Democrats won with 29.5% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe: 2010 Liberal Democrats, 2015 Conservative, 2017 Conservative, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Liberal Democrats.

Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe MP David Chadwick (Liberal Democrat): GE2024 result, current poll projection

Who lives in Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

52.9%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

32.2%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

19.0%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

69.0%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

30.6%

UK average ~36%

Median age

50.0

UK median ~40

Age 65+

32.1%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

22.6%

UK average ~28%

How did Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

LD gain from Con · majority 1,472 votes (3.1pp) · turnout 63.7%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Senedd 2026 layer

How Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)

Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe sits entirely within the Senedd constituency of Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.

Senedd constituency	Share of Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe	Winner	Runner-up	Seats (6 per constituency)
Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd	100%	Reform UK 33.2%	Plaid Cymru 28.7%	3 Reform UK, 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Liberal Democrats

Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe within Powys and Neath Port Talbot

Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe crosses multiple council boundaries: Powys (76%), Neath Port Talbot (24%). The figures below come from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026 in each constituent council.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Powys 44 LSOAs	76%
Neath Port Talbot 14 LSOAs	24%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	LD hold	Roger Williams Brecon and Radnorshire MP	10.5%	36.5%	46.2%	2.3% UKIP	0.9%	1.1%	3,747	72.5%
2015predecessor	Con gain from LD	Chris Davies Brecon and Radnorshire MP	14.7%	41.1%	28.3%	8.3% UKIP	3.1%	-	5,102	73.6%
2017predecessor	Con hold	Chris Davies Brecon and Radnorshire MP	17.7%	48.6%	29.1%	1.4% UKIP	-	-	8,038	73.8%
2019notional	Conservative winner	Fay Jones Brecon and Radnorshire MP, pre-review boundary	17.5%	46.6%	29.2%	-	0.4%	6.3%	9,091	72.5%
2024	LD gain from Con	David Chadwick	21.3%	26.3%	29.5%	14.1% Ref	2.6%	1.3%	1,472	63.7%

Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Brecon and Radnorshire (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.

Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe

David Chadwick