Who is the MP for Bournemouth West?

Jessica Toale (Labour) is the MP for Bournemouth West. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Bournemouth West at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Bournemouth West was won by Labour with 36.4% of the vote, ahead of Conservative on 28.3%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Bournemouth West?

PollCheck's current projection has Reform UK on 32.6% and Labour on 22.1% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Bournemouth West in?

Bournemouth West sits within Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole covers most or all of the Bournemouth West area.

What is the demographic profile of Bournemouth West?

Bournemouth West is in South West. The seat is Leave-voting (Leave vote estimated at 57.7% in 2016). Around 30.7% of residents have a degree, a median age of 38, and 55.1% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Bournemouth West?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Bournemouth West, Labour won with 36.4% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Bournemouth West in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Bournemouth West: 2010 Conservative, 2015 Conservative, 2017 Conservative, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

Bournemouth West

South West · Borough constituency · Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole borough

Sitting MP

Jessica Toale

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

South West

Borough constituency, Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole council

Last 5 GE winners

CCCCL

Conservative 4/5, Labour 1/5

EU referendum 2016

57.7% Leave

UK average 51.9%; +5.8pp above mean

Current outlook

Reform UK +10.5pp

Vulnerability score 8/10 (Labour projected to lose)

SouthernLeave-leaning

Who lives in Bournemouth West? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

57.7%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

30.7%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

15.9%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

55.1%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

44.3%

UK average ~36%

Median age

37.5

UK median ~40

Age 65+

20.7%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

37.9%

UK average ~28%

How did Bournemouth West vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 3,224 votes (8.1pp) · turnout 56.1%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Bournemouth West

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Bournemouth West within Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole

The Westminster constituency of Bournemouth West sits entirely within Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole 63 LSOAs	100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Bournemouth West at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Bournemouth West at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Con hold	Conor Burns	14.8%	45.1%	31.7%	7.2% UKIP	-	1.1%	5,583	58.1%
2015	Con hold	Conor Burns	17.7%	48.2%	7.9%	18.5% UKIP	7.4%	0.2%	12,410	58.0%
2017	Con hold	Conor Burns	36.2%	53.5%	6.6%	-	2.8%	0.9%	7,711	60.8%
2019notional	Conservative winner	Conor Burns 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	31.8%	53.6%	10.1%	-	4.5%	-	9,941	63.5%
2024	Lab gain from Con	Jessica Toale	36.4%	28.3%	10.9%	16.9% Ref	6.6%	0.9%	3,224	56.1%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Bournemouth West

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bournemouth West. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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