Who is the MP for Bolton South and Walkden?

Yasmin Qureshi (Labour) is the MP for Bolton South and Walkden. They were first elected in May 2010.

Who won Bolton South and Walkden at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Bolton South and Walkden was won by Labour with 40.9% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 22.6%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Bolton South and Walkden?

PollCheck's current projection has Reform UK on 34.2% and Labour on 19.2% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Bolton South and Walkden in?

Bolton South and Walkden crosses multiple council boundaries: Bolton (67%), Salford (33%). Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units.

What is the demographic profile of Bolton South and Walkden?

Bolton South and Walkden is in North West. The seat is Leave-voting (Leave vote estimated at 61.4% in 2016). Around 23.5% of residents have a degree, a median age of 35, and 50.4% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Bolton South and Walkden?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Bolton South and Walkden, Labour won with 40.9% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Bolton South and Walkden in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Bolton South and Walkden: 2010 Labour, 2015 Labour, 2017 Labour, 2019 Labour, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

Bolton South and Walkden

North West · Borough constituency

Sitting MP

Yasmin Qureshi

Labour

First elected May 2010

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

North West

Borough constituency

Last 5 GE winners

LLLLL

Labour 5/5

EU referendum 2016

61.4% Leave

UK average 51.9%; +9.5pp above mean

Current outlook

Reform UK +15.0pp

Vulnerability score 9/10 (Labour projected to lose)

NorthernStrong Leave areaWorking-class profileDiverse

Who lives in Bolton South and Walkden? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

61.4%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

23.5%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

26.4%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

50.4%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

48.6%

UK average ~36%

Median age

34.7

UK median ~40

Age 65+

17.3%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

35.8%

UK average ~28%

How did Bolton South and Walkden vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 6,743 votes (18.3pp) · turnout 46.4%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Bolton South and Walkden

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Bolton South and Walkden within Bolton and Salford

Bolton South and Walkden crosses multiple council boundaries: Bolton (67%), Salford (33%). The figures below come from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026 in each constituent council.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat	Projection
Bolton 47 LSOAs	67%	View projection ›
Salford 23 LSOAs	33%	View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Bolton South and Walkden at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Bolton South and Walkden at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	Lab hold	Yasmin Qureshi Bolton South East MP	47.4%	25.6%	15.9%	3.9% UKIP	1.6%	5.6%	8,634	57.0%
2015predecessor	Lab hold	Yasmin Qureshi Bolton South East MP	50.5%	20.3%	2.6%	23.6% UKIP	2.9%	-	10,928	58.5%
2017predecessor	Lab hold	Yasmin Qureshi Bolton South East MP	60.7%	29.7%	1.8%	6.6% UKIP	1.3%	-	13,126	61.4%
2019notional	Labour winner	Yasmin Qureshi Bolton South East MP, pre-review boundary	56.6%	31.7%	3.9%	-	2.4%	5.4%	10,929	58.1%
2024	Lab hold	Yasmin Qureshi	40.9%	11.3%	3.7%	22.6% Ref	7.7%	13.8%	6,743	46.4%

Bolton South and Walkden was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Bolton South East (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Bolton South and Walkden

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bolton South and Walkden. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.