Who is the MP for Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock?

Elaine Stewart (Labour) is the MP for Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock was won by Labour with 36.5% of the vote, ahead of SNP on 26.3%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock?

PollCheck's current projection has SNP on 30.9% and Reform UK on 20.6% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock in?

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock sits within South Ayrshire council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but South Ayrshire covers most or all of the Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock area.

What is the demographic profile of Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock?

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock is in Scotland. The seat is Remain-voting (Leave vote estimated at 44.1% in 2016). Around 39.5% of residents have a degree, a median age of 49, and 64.5% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock, Labour won with 36.5% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock: 2010 Labour, 2015 SNP, 2017 Conservative, 2019 SNP, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

Scotland · County constituency · South Ayrshire borough

Sitting MP

Elaine Stewart

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

Scotland

County constituency, South Ayrshire council

Last 5 GE winners

LSCSL

Labour 2/5, SNP 2/5, Conservative 1/5

EU referendum 2016

44.1% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -7.8pp below mean

Current outlook

SNP +10.3pp

Vulnerability score 9/10 (Labour projected to lose)

ScottishRemain-leaning

Who lives in Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

44.1%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

39.5%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

21.1%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

64.5%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

33.9%

UK average ~36%

Median age

48.8

UK median ~40

Age 65+

29.6%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

23.9%

UK average ~28%

How did Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from SNP · majority 4,154 votes (10.2pp) · turnout 58.2%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Holyrood 2026 layer

How Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock sits almost entirely within the Holyrood constituency of Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley. Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituency	Share of Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock	Winner	Runner-up	Elected MSP
Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley	98%	SNP 33.2%	Reform UK 24.1%	Katie Hagmann
Ayr	1%	SNP 36.4%	Conservative 23.9%	Siobhian Brown

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).

Council layer (not Westminster)

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock within South Ayrshire

The Westminster constituency of Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock sits entirely within South Ayrshire Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
South Ayrshire 1 LSOAs	100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Lab hold	Sandra Osborne	47.1%	25.5%	9.3%	-	-	-	9,911	62.6%
2015	SNP gain from Lab	Corri Wilson	27.3%	19.8%	1.6%	2.5% UKIP	-	-	11,265	71.5%
2017	Con gain from SNP	Bill Grant	23.9%	40.1%	1.9%	-	-	-	2,774	64.9%
2019notional	Scottish National Party winner	Allan Dorans 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	13.3%	38.5%	4.6%	-	-	43.6%	2,329	64.7%
2024	Lab gain from SNP	Elaine Stewart	36.5%	22.6%	2.6%	8.7% Ref	2.2%	1.2%	4,154	58.2%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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