Who is the MP for Ashton-under-Lyne?

Angela Rayner (Labour) is the MP for Ashton-under-Lyne. They were first elected in May 2015.

Who won Ashton-under-Lyne at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Ashton-under-Lyne was won by Labour with 43.9% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 24.8%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Ashton-under-Lyne?

PollCheck's current projection has Reform UK on 38.6% and Labour on 20.9% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Ashton-under-Lyne in?

Ashton-under-Lyne sits within Tameside council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Tameside covers most or all of the Ashton-under-Lyne area.

What is the demographic profile of Ashton-under-Lyne?

Ashton-under-Lyne is in North West. The seat is Leave-voting (Leave vote estimated at 61.8% in 2016). Around 23.5% of residents have a degree, a median age of 39, and 57.5% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Ashton-under-Lyne?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Ashton-under-Lyne, Labour won with 43.9% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Ashton-under-Lyne in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Ashton-under-Lyne: 2010 Labour, 2015 Labour, 2017 Labour, 2019 Labour, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

Ashton-under-Lyne

North West · Borough constituency · Tameside borough

Sitting MP

Angela Rayner

Labour

First elected May 2015

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

North West

Borough constituency, Tameside council

Last 5 GE winners

LLLLL

Labour 5/5

EU referendum 2016

61.8% Leave

UK average 51.9%; +9.9pp above mean

Current outlook

Reform UK +17.7pp

Vulnerability score 9/10 (Labour projected to lose)

NorthernStrong Leave areaWorking-class profile

Who lives in Ashton-under-Lyne? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

61.8%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

23.5%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

23.4%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

57.5%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

42.1%

UK average ~36%

Median age

39.0

UK median ~40

Age 65+

20.2%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

31.1%

UK average ~28%

How did Ashton-under-Lyne vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 6,791 votes (19.1pp) · turnout 49.9%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Ashton-under-Lyne

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Ashton-under-Lyne within Tameside

The Westminster constituency of Ashton-under-Lyne sits entirely within Tameside Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat	Projection
Tameside 61 LSOAs	100%	View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Ashton-under-Lyne at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Ashton-under-Lyne at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Lab hold	David Heyes	48.4%	24.7%	14.8%	4.4% UKIP	-	7.6%	9,094	56.8%
2015	Lab hold	Angela Rayner	49.8%	22.1%	2.4%	21.8% UKIP	3.9%	-	10,756	56.9%
2017	Lab hold	Angela Rayner	60.4%	32.0%	1.6%	4.7% UKIP	1.3%	-	11,295	58.8%
2019notional	Labour winner	Angela Rayner 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	47.5%	36.2%	4.3%	-	3.5%	8.5%	4,689	57.2%
2024	Lab hold	Angela Rayner	43.9%	12.3%	4.0%	24.8% Ref	7.0%	8.0%	6,791	49.9%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Ashton-under-Lyne

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Ashton-under-Lyne. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.