Who is the MP for Ashfield?

Lee Anderson (Reform UK) is the MP for Ashfield. They were first elected in December 2019.

Who won Ashfield at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Ashfield was won by Reform UK with 42.8% of the vote, ahead of Labour on 29.0%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Ashfield?

PollCheck's current projection has Reform UK on 58.8% and Others on 17.8% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Ashfield in?

Ashfield sits within Ashfield council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Ashfield covers most or all of the Ashfield area.

What is the demographic profile of Ashfield?

Ashfield is in East Midlands. The seat is Leave-voting (Leave vote estimated at 70.5% in 2016). Around 20.5% of residents have a degree, a median age of 43, and 66.8% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Ashfield?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Ashfield, Reform UK won with 42.8% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Ashfield in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Ashfield: 2010 Labour, 2015 Labour, 2017 Labour, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Reform UK.

Constituency profile

Ashfield

East Midlands · County constituency

Sitting MP

Lee Anderson

Reform UK

First elected December 2019

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

East Midlands

County constituency

Last 5 GE winners

LLLCR

Labour 3/5, Conservative 1/5, Reform UK 1/5

EU referendum 2016

70.5% Leave

UK average 51.9%; +18.6pp above mean

Current outlook

Reform UK +41.0pp

vs Others 17.8%

MidlandsStrong Leave areaWorking-class profile

Who lives in Ashfield? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

70.5%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

20.5%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

24.6%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

66.8%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

32.6%

UK average ~36%

Median age

43.0

UK median ~40

Age 65+

24.4%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

27.8%

UK average ~28%

How did Ashfield vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

RUK gain from Con · majority 5,508 votes (13.8pp) · turnout 57.9%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Ashfield

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Ashfield within Ashfield

The Westminster constituency of Ashfield sits almost entirely within Ashfield Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Ashfield 54 LSOAs	96%
Mansfield 2 LSOAs	4%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Ashfield at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Ashfield at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Lab hold	Gloria de Piero	33.7%	22.2%	33.3%	1.9% UKIP	-	8.9%	192	62.3%
2015	Lab hold	Gloria De Piero	41.0%	22.4%	14.8%	21.4% UKIP	-	0.3%	8,820	61.5%
2017	Lab hold	Gloria De Piero	42.6%	41.7%	1.9%	3.8% UKIP	0.8%	9.2%	441	64.0%
2019notional	Conservative winner	Lee Anderson 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	25.6%	39.2%	2.1%	-	1.3%	31.8%	5,303	61.5%
2024	RUK gain from Con	Lee Anderson	29.0%	8.2%	1.6%	42.8% Ref	2.8%	15.7%	5,508	57.9%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Ashfield

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Ashfield. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.