Who is the MP for Arundel and South Downs?

Andrew Griffith (Conservative) is the MP for Arundel and South Downs. They were first elected in December 2019.

Who won Arundel and South Downs at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Arundel and South Downs was won by Conservative with 40.2% of the vote, ahead of Liberal Democrats on 18.0%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Arundel and South Downs?

PollCheck's current projection has Conservative on 33.2% and Reform UK on 25.7% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Arundel and South Downs in?

Arundel and South Downs crosses multiple council boundaries: Horsham (43%), Chichester (40%), Arun (17%). Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units.

What is the demographic profile of Arundel and South Downs?

Arundel and South Downs is in South East. The seat is closely divided on Brexit (Leave vote estimated at 49.7% in 2016). Around 37.5% of residents have a degree, a median age of 52, and 73.2% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Arundel and South Downs?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Arundel and South Downs, Conservative won with 40.2% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Arundel and South Downs in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Arundel and South Downs: 2010 Conservative, 2015 Conservative, 2017 Conservative, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Conservative.

Constituency profile

Arundel and South Downs

South East · County constituency

Sitting MP

Andrew Griffith

Conservative

First elected December 2019Shadow: Shadow Secretary of State for Business and Trade

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

South East

County constituency

Last 5 GE winners

CCCCC

Conservative 5/5

EU referendum 2016

49.7% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -2.2pp below mean

Current outlook

Conservative +7.5pp

vs Reform UK 25.7%

SouthernBrexit-marginal

Who lives in Arundel and South Downs? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

49.7%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

37.5%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

14.1%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

73.2%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

25.7%

UK average ~36%

Median age

51.5

UK median ~40

Age 65+

33.9%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

19.7%

UK average ~28%

How did Arundel and South Downs vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 12,134 votes (22.2pp) · turnout 70.2%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Arundel and South Downs

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Arundel and South Downs within Horsham and Chichester and 1 other council

Arundel and South Downs crosses multiple council boundaries: Horsham (43%), Chichester (40%), Arun (17%). The figures below come from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026 in each constituent council.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Horsham 25 LSOAs	43%
Chichester 23 LSOAs	40%
Arun 10 LSOAs	17%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Arundel and South Downs at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Arundel and South Downs at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Con hold	Nick Herbert	8.6%	57.8%	27.9%	5.7% UKIP	-	-	16,691	72.9%
2015	Con hold	Nick Herbert	11.2%	60.8%	7.2%	14.4% UKIP	6.4%	-	26,177	73.1%
2017	Con hold	Nick Herbert	22.7%	62.4%	7.9%	2.8% UKIP	4.2%	-	23,883	75.8%
2019notional	Conservative winner	Andrew Griffith 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	15.7%	60.4%	19.0%	-	4.0%	0.9%	24,105	75.5%
2024	Con hold	Andrew Griffith	17.9%	40.2%	18.0%	13.5% Ref	10.1%	0.3%	12,134	70.2%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Arundel and South Downs

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Arundel and South Downs. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.