Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber
Scotland · County constituency · Argyll and Bute borough
Who lives in Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.
How Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Argyll and Bute (70%), Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch (23%), Dumbarton (5%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Share of Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argyll and Bute | 70% | SNP 40.0% | Liberal Democrats 30.7% | Jenni Minto |
| Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch | 23% | Liberal Democrats 38.9% | SNP 36.5% | Andrew Baxter |
| Dumbarton | 5% | Labour 39.8% | SNP 34.2% | Jackie Baillie |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).
Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber within Argyll and Bute
The Westminster constituency of Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber sits entirely within Argyll and Bute Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Argyll and Bute | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | LD hold | Alan Reid Argyll and Bute MP | 22.7% | 24.0% | 31.6% | 3,431 | 67.3% |
| 2015predecessor | SNP gain from LD | Brendan O'Hara Argyll and Bute MP | 10.4% | 14.9% | 27.9% | 8,473 | 75.3% |
| 2017predecessor | SNP hold | Brendan O'Hara Argyll and Bute MP | 12.6% | 33.2% | 18.2% | 1,328 | 71.5% |
| 2019notional | Scottish National Party winner | Brendan O'Hara Argyll and Bute MP, pre-review boundary | 7.1% | 34.5% | 14.1% | 4,897 | 70.7% |
| 2024 | SNP hold | Brendan O'Hara | 19.1% | 20.8% | 16.4% | 6,232 | 62.5% |
Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Argyll and Bute (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber. Politics shown for context.
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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