Who is the MP for Altrincham and Sale West?

Mr Connor Rand (Labour) is the MP for Altrincham and Sale West. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Altrincham and Sale West at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Altrincham and Sale West was won by Labour with 40.4% of the vote, ahead of Conservative on 32.3%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Altrincham and Sale West?

PollCheck's current projection has Conservative on 31.3% and Reform UK on 20.1% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Altrincham and Sale West in?

Altrincham and Sale West sits within Trafford council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Trafford covers most or all of the Altrincham and Sale West area.

What is the demographic profile of Altrincham and Sale West?

Altrincham and Sale West is in North West. The seat is Remain-voting (Leave vote estimated at 38.6% in 2016). Around 48.7% of residents have a degree, a median age of 42, and 74.3% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Altrincham and Sale West?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Altrincham and Sale West, Labour won with 40.4% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Altrincham and Sale West in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Altrincham and Sale West: 2010 Conservative, 2015 Conservative, 2017 Conservative, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

Altrincham and Sale West

North West · Borough constituency · Trafford borough

Sitting MP

Mr Connor Rand

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

North West

Borough constituency, Trafford council

Last 5 GE winners

CCCCL

Conservative 4/5, Labour 1/5

EU referendum 2016

38.6% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -13.3pp below mean

Current outlook

Conservative +11.2pp

Vulnerability score 8/10 (Labour projected to lose)

NorthernRemain-leaningGraduate-heavy

Who lives in Altrincham and Sale West? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

38.6%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

48.7%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

11.5%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

74.3%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

25.1%

UK average ~36%

Median age

42.4

UK median ~40

Age 65+

23.9%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

24.5%

UK average ~28%

How did Altrincham and Sale West vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 4,174 votes (8.1pp) · turnout 69.5%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Altrincham and Sale West

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Altrincham and Sale West within Trafford

The Westminster constituency of Altrincham and Sale West sits entirely within Trafford Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat	Projection
Trafford 59 LSOAs	100%	View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Altrincham and Sale West at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Altrincham and Sale West at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Con hold	Graham Brady	22.4%	48.9%	25.5%	3.2% UKIP	-	-	11,595	68.4%
2015	Con hold	Graham Brady	26.7%	53.0%	8.4%	8.0% UKIP	3.9%	-	13,290	70.6%
2017	Con hold	Graham Brady	38.8%	51.0%	7.7%	-	1.9%	0.6%	6,426	72.1%
2019notional	Conservative winner	Graham Brady 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	36.8%	48.0%	11.0%	-	2.9%	1.3%	6,139	74.1%
2024	Lab gain from Con	Connor Rand	40.4%	32.3%	9.2%	9.6% Ref	7.2%	1.2%	4,174	69.5%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Altrincham and Sale West

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Altrincham and Sale West. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.