Aberdeen South
Scotland · Burgh constituency · Aberdeen City borough
Who lives in Aberdeen South? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
Aberdeen South by-election: Thursday 18 June 2026
Stephen Flynn MP - vacancy following his election to the Scottish Parliament on 7 May 2026.
See the full by-election tracker ›How did Aberdeen South vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
By-election warning: the projection below is what would happen at a general election today. It does not forecast the Aberdeen South by-election on Thursday 18 June 2026, which has different turnout, candidates, and tactical dynamics. See the full by-election tracker ›
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Aberdeen South
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.
How Aberdeen South voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Aberdeen South crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine (86%), Aberdeen Central (11%), Aberdeenshire West (3%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Share of Aberdeen South | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine | 86% | SNP 34.1% | Conservative 30.5% | Stephen Flynn |
| Aberdeen Central | 11% | SNP 44.1% | Labour 18.4% | Jack Middleton |
| Aberdeenshire West | 3% | Conservative 42.9% | SNP 27.3% | Alexander Burnett |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).
Aberdeen South within Aberdeen City
The Westminster constituency of Aberdeen South sits entirely within Aberdeen City Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Aberdeen City | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Aberdeen South at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Aberdeen South at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Anne Begg | 36.5% | 20.7% | 28.4% | 3,506 | 67.2% |
| 2015 | SNP gain from Lab | Callum McCaig | 26.8% | 22.8% | 4.6% | 7,230 | 71.3% |
| 2017 | Con gain from SNP | Ross Thomson | 20.5% | 42.1% | 5.9% | 4,752 | 68.5% |
| 2019notional | Scottish National Party winner | Stephen Flynn 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 8.8% | 34.4% | 10.7% | 5,463 | 65.5% |
| 2024 | SNP hold | Stephen Flynn | 24.7% | 24.4% | 6.3% | 3,758 | 59.9% |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Aberdeen South
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Aberdeen South. Politics shown for context.
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.