Who is the MP for Aberafan Maesteg?

Stephen Kinnock (Labour) is the MP for Aberafan Maesteg. They were first elected in May 2015.

Who won Aberafan Maesteg at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Aberafan Maesteg was won by Labour with 49.9% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 20.9%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Aberafan Maesteg?

PollCheck's current projection has Reform UK on 30.6% and Plaid Cymru on 23.8% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Aberafan Maesteg in?

Aberafan Maesteg crosses multiple council boundaries: Neath Port Talbot (62%), Bridgend (38%). Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units.

What is the demographic profile of Aberafan Maesteg?

Aberafan Maesteg is in Wales. The seat is Leave-voting (Leave vote estimated at 55.8% in 2016). Around 23.7% of residents have a degree, a median age of 43, and 64.3% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Aberafan Maesteg?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Aberafan Maesteg, Labour won with 49.9% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Aberafan Maesteg in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Aberafan Maesteg: 2010 Labour, 2015 Labour, 2017 Labour, 2019 Labour, 2024 Labour.

Aberafan Maesteg MP Stephen Kinnock (Labour): GE2024 result, current poll projection

Who lives in Aberafan Maesteg? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

55.8%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

23.7%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

27.0%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

64.3%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

35.4%

UK average ~36%

Median age

42.8

UK median ~40

Age 65+

24.9%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

28.1%

UK average ~28%

How did Aberafan Maesteg vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 10,354 votes (29.0pp) · turnout 49.3%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Aberafan Maesteg

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Senedd 2026 layer

How Aberafan Maesteg voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)

Aberafan Maesteg sits almost entirely within the Senedd constituency of Afan Ogwr Rhondda. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.

Senedd constituency	Share of Aberafan Maesteg	Winner	Runner-up	Seats (6 per constituency)
Afan Ogwr Rhondda	98%	Plaid Cymru 36.9%	Reform UK 33.6%	3 Plaid Cymru, 2 Reform UK, 1 Labour
Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd	1%	Reform UK 33.2%	Plaid Cymru 28.7%	3 Reform UK, 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Liberal Democrats

Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Aberafan Maesteg within Neath Port Talbot and Bridgend

Aberafan Maesteg crosses multiple council boundaries: Neath Port Talbot (62%), Bridgend (38%). The figures below come from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026 in each constituent council.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Neath Port Talbot 37 LSOAs	62%
Bridgend 23 LSOAs	38%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Aberafan Maesteg at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Aberafan Maesteg at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	Lab hold	Hywel Francis Aberavon MP	51.9%	14.2%	16.3%	1.6% UKIP	-	8.9%	11,039	60.9%
2015predecessor	Lab hold	Stephen Kinnock Aberavon MP	48.9%	11.9%	4.4%	15.8% UKIP	2.3%	5.1%	10,445	63.3%
2017predecessor	Lab hold	Stephen Kinnock Aberavon MP	68.1%	17.7%	1.8%	4.0% UKIP	-	-	16,761	66.7%
2019notional	Labour winner	Stephen Kinnock Aberavon MP, pre-review boundary	52.9%	22.6%	3.7%	-	1.6%	19.2%	13,457	63.6%
2024	Lab hold	Stephen Kinnock	49.9%	8.1%	2.6%	20.9% Ref	3.1%	2.2%	10,354	49.3%

Aberafan Maesteg was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Aberavon (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Aberafan Maesteg

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Aberafan Maesteg. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.

Aberafan Maesteg

Stephen Kinnock